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[ECON] 2022 People's Bank of China Statement
Press Conference with the Governor of the People's Bank of China 任中国人民银行行长 Yi Gang 易纲 on current monetary and regulatory matters in the People's Republic of China for the year 2022
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is gladdened to announce that the efforts made by the Bank to consolidate financial markets and reign in unproductive credit and the misappropriation in debt lending are seeing bountiful returns. For the 2022 year forecast, we are thus heartened to state that the economy has exponentially preformed to bring growth above 7 percent, beating negative analysis on efforts on the PBOC and government's meaningful reforms to address core structural issues that have threatened the Chinese and global economy. While we have identified specific measures in relation to consumer demand and business growth, in conjunction with the improving regulatory framework, we foresee promising inflationary movement and are pleased to see an adaptive labour market take hold in overall trends for key benchmarks. In regards to the current developments in the Banks's stimulus efforts, we shall maintain the current level of market guidance and capital assistance. While we continue this approach, we are constantly assessing the Mainland's capital markets liquidity and should concerns be spotted that identify general overheating, the PBOC is ready to address those concerns and enforce targeted measures. Now, onto the main elements of the year's statement: the current status on the internationalisation of the Renminbi and policy responses to optimise a favourable environment as well as new guidelines on capital market The following discussion shall be complimented with the following handout:
The Renminbi - The People's Currency, and Soon the World's?
The Continued Dollar Dominance
First, a blunt fact: while multiple reserve currencies have co-existed before, and of course dominance today does not guarantee dominance in the future, with the British pound's fall as a gentle reminder of this, the PBOC is pragmatic in stating that dollar's demise looks a long ways off. Part of this is the on-the-ground data indicating that the drive to internationalisation has indeed lost much of its momentum as a reserve currency.
There is no better reminder that the US dollar is dominant than the rout across emerging market economies sine 2016-2020. The worst-performing currencies of 2019 shared a disproportionate reliance on the greenback. In 2015, 62 per cent of countries anchored their currencies to the dollar and about the same percentage of developing countries borrow in the currency.
On the other hand, less than 30 per cent of countries use the euro as an anchor for their exchange rates and only 13 per cent of external debt for developing countries is euro-denominated. The pound and the yen barely show up in the data.
When it comes to global currency reserves held by central banks, the dollar is unrivalled. While its share of global foreign-exchange reserves has fallen for five consecutive quarters, global central banks have more or less held some 60 per cent or more of their reserves in the greenback since 1996. Even with a loss of confidence in US markets, forex holdings in the Renminbi have been somewhat insignificant.
Chinese Efforts to Open Up the Renminbi - An Uneven Effort
In March 2019, China introduced its first renminbi-denominated oil futures contract, an attempt to have an alternative for domestic and international investors and traders to the petro-dollar order. However until the central government creates bilateral agreement with major oil-producing (OPEC) states to accept payment in Renminbi, this will continue to see sub-optimal results.
Since gaining a spot in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies in 2015, China has also extended local currency swaps with various countries, including those along its landmark Belt and Road initiative, as well as took steps to open up its local bond market to foreign investors. Though given the sputtering results in BRI agreements and the concerns on excessive lending to questionable projects/governments, the BRI as a route to internationalisation has taken a backseat for policy makers.
Of concern to the PBOC and MOF policy analysts is that internationalisation of China's currency has stalled, and by some measures even reversed. As in 2016, the Renminbi was the fifth most actively used currency for domestic and international payments, with a roughly 2 per cent share, according to SWIFT. That's a drop from 2014 and 2015 when the use of China's currency doubled — in a year — to 2.8 per cent.
When only international payments are considered, the Renminbi drops to eighth place behind: the dollar, which comprises nearly 45 per cent; the euro with 32 per cent; followed by the Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, which all have a share of 5 per cent or less.
Allowing market forces to play a larger role in determining the Renminbi's value and opening up the capital account would require a complete overhaul of the country's financial system. While we realise that such a policy shift would bring some expected gains, the PBOC sees little reason to make a great pivot towards liberalisation, but instead a concerted series of smaller policies - or to put it more traditionally, 'Crossing the river by grasping the stones on the riverbed.'
Making The Cross Across the Riverbed Towards A More Global Renminbi The PBOC has issued the following in its Guiding Measures to the Chinese Mainland and SAR financial markets:
A new rule shall be instituted on cross-border Renminbi FDI which stipulates that, in principle, all the foreign enterprises are allowed to raise Renminbi funds in offshore Renminbi markets and repatriate them back to the mainland in the form of FDI. Previously, the foreign firms’ behaviours of remitting Renminbi back into Mainland were subjected to the PBOC’s approval on a case-by-case basis.
These transactions are to be settled in Hong Kong accounts, thus increasing the amount of Yuan in circulation offshore; these offshore Renminbi will be distinctly referred to as CNH rather than the onshore CNY. Furthermore, this allows the PBOC to act should the policy be abused by market speculators looking for an easy entry into China's domestic capital markets.
This new rule will further buoy the offshore Renminbi (“Dim Sum”) bond market and accelerate the pace of Renminbi internationalisation.
The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs shall begin to broker with OPEC states an agreement on settlement of trade in crude oil and its derivatives be conducted in Renminbi, in a further boost to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Shanghai crude oil futures market.
The extension of the “mini-QFII” scheme to India, Pakistan, ASEAN, the Republic of Korea and Japan which will allow some foreign central banks, beyond only a handful of smaller nearby Asian countries, to start building a limited amount of currency reserves even before anything like full currency convertibility will be authorised and conducted. QFII stands for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor, a designation that allows a company to invest in Chinese bonds and equities — though again, within guiding limits issued by the PBOC on a case-by-case basis.
Regulators will begin a similar pilot scheme - RQFII - that would allow financial institutions with a physical mainland presence to remit currency from their Hong Kong subsidiaries back to the mainland — and, potentially, foreign central banks to invest small amounts of Renminbi in the Chinese interbank bond market.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority already has QFII status, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore has applied, with the PBOC accepting further applications.
Foreign institutions will be given a capped access of no more than $100 million in Hong Kong accounts to derivatives, including financial futures, commodity futures and options in testing the markets' reaction to foreign operators.
Pakistan's rupee keeps sliding after IMF loan accord reached
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 35%. (I'm a bot)
The rupee, which lost 3.6 per cent on Thursday to close at 146.2 against the U.S. dollar in the interbank market, dropped further on Friday, dealers said, selling at 149.50 in the interbank market and 150 in the open market. The fall reflects the IMF's condition for a "Market-based exchange rate mechanism, which will see limited intervention by the central bank now," said Saad Hashemy, chief economist and research director at Topline Securities in Karachi. Pakistan's stock market also declined on Friday, with the benchmark KSE 100 index down 2.4 per cent by 0615 GMT. While the exact conditions of a final IMF deal are still unknown, Sunday's Staff-Level accord, which must still be approved by the Fund's board in Washington, said a "Market-determined" exchange rate would help the financial sector. Late on Thursday, the central bank issued a statement saying the sharp fall in the rupee "Reflects demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange market" and would help in correcting market imbalances. While many analysts see the rupee as overvalued and say the central bank has wasted billions defending it, a weaker currency is likely to fuel inflation, which is already over 8 per cent, with power and fuel prices hit especially hard. The central bank, which is due to announce its latest interest rate decision on Monday, said late on Thursday that its foreign exchange reserves fell $138 million in the week ending May 10 to $8.846 billion, less than needed to cover three months of imports.
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Manmohan Singh – 10 years 4 days….. In these total 57 years, these people could not get Achche din”
Pappu wants achche din in just 12 months. Such a Shame Double Standard thinking…… We have elected a prime minister not a magician. (Must Read)….. Why is Narendra Modi making more foreign visits ???
For the first time after 42 yrs Indian Prime Minister visited Canada not to attend some meeting but as a specific state visit, in a Bilateral deal, India was able convince to Canada to supply Uranium for India’s Nuclear reactors for next 5 years. It will be of great help to Resolve India’s Power problems. . . .
Canada approves visa on arrival for all Indian tourists. . . .
Australia is set to sign a Nuclear Power deal with India to supply around 500 tonnes of Uranium to India……
Satya Nadella (Microsoft), Indra Nooyi (Pepsico), Sheryl Sandberg (Facebook), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook) discusses possible investments……
Israel inks $5 million deal for Joint Educational Research programme……
$20 billion investment from Xi and his Chinese counterparts……
2 Billion Euros support from France for sustainable development in India……
Airbus to increase outsourcing in India from 400 million euros to 2 billion euros over the next five years……
French National Railways has agreed to co-finance an execution study for a semi- high speed project on upgradation of the Delhi-Chandigarh line to 200 kmph…….
Canada agrees to supply 3,000 metric tonnes of uranium to India from this year to power Indian atomic reactors…….
Japan and India agree to jointly produce mixed rare earth.
And While we are all yearning for a transformation, development, etc. There is someone who is actually setting up the infrastructure for it…… Marketing of ‘Brand India’ has never been so important…… Number of days Modi stayed abroad touring 15 countries as a PM on official trips = 45…… Number of days Rahul stayed abroad (Bangkok) without informing his voters = 57……. Now read the description below: 1. BJP Govt. convinced Saudi Arabia not to charge “On-Time Delivery 1 Premium charges” on Crude Oil – Young Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan & External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj sealed the deal. Saved the country thousands of crores… . .
India will build 4 Hydroelectric power stations + Dams in Bhutan (India will get lion’s share in Green energy that will be produced in future from these projects) . .
India will build Biggest ever dam of Nepal (China was trying hard to get that) – India will get 83% Green energy produce from that hydro power station for free – in future. . . . .
Increased relationship with Japan and they agreed to invest $ 30 Billion in DMIC (Delhi – Mumbai Investment Corridor)..
Increased strategic relationship with Vietnam and Vietnam has now agreed to give contract of Oil exploration to ONGC-Videsh (UPA was not ready to take this at all because they were worried about China – and getting into a conflict of interests on south China sea)
Increase Oil Imports from Iran, despite the ban by USA. . Iran agreed to sell in Indian Rupees and it saved our Forex, not just for now, but protected India from future currency fluctuations. India also gets to build “Chabahar” port of Iran, encircling Pakistan. Because we well have exclusive access for our Naval ships in this port.
Australia- despite Australia being a major supplier of Coal & Uranium. . . NaMo was able to convince Tony Abbott and now Australia will supply Uranium for our energy production. . .
China leaning President Rajapakse lost elections in Sri Lanka – Remember UPA lost “Hambantota” port development – read latest report of CIA, where they mention RAW has played a major role in power shift of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has backed out of Chinese contract and shifted to Indian project managers.
With China, as Trade Deficit was increasing, NaMo forced their hand. Anti-Dumping will come soon so China will invest heavily into India. – China has already committed $ 20 billion Investment in India. That’s nearly ₹140,000 crores.
On Security – I think adding Ajit Doval to his team is the best decision by NaMo. See the recent tie-up with Pentagon, Israel & Japan. . Now see how we stopped the Terror Boat and listen to his words … “Any Mumbai like attack from Pakistan and Pakistan will lose Baluchistan!” That’s the language of deterrence that I want to hear as an Indian. We won’t hit first, but if you do, we surely won’t turn the other cheek…. . . .
India approved the border road in the NorthEast and around India- China border – Remember just because of China’s opposition, the ADB (Asian Development Bank) didn’t give us funds during UPA regime and UPA held that file under “Environment Ministry control – Remember the infamous “JAYANTHI TAX “? No one bothered about the disastrous effect on our armed forces.
India managed to bring back 4,500+ Indians from War zone in Yemen and also brought foreign nationals of 41 different countries, which put India’s name onto the highest platform globally in conducting that rescue mission – PM Narendra Modi specially talked to the new Saudi Arabian king Salman and told him to allow Indian Airforce planes to fly – as Saudi Arabia was attacking on Yemen and Yemen skies was declared NO-FLY Zone: thanks to this we got an assured clear window of a few hours and guys guess who coordinated this? Ajit Doval, Sushama Swaraj and Gen V K Singh. All in person…. When was the last time you ever heard of ministers involved personally in such efforts that didn’t fetch thousands of crores?? Guess the religion of those rescued?? But it isn’t secular.
India’s Air defense was getting weaker by the day, UPA was very happy to let it happen despite repeated specific inputs from the armed forces, NaMo renegotiated Rafale fighter Jets deal with France personally and bought 36 Jets on ASAP basis. At better than rack rates. No middlemen, no commissions…
$35 billion investment by Japan over a period of 5 years and along with it their expertise in making bullet trains……
Till recently we were exclusively buying Nuclear Reactors from Russia or USA and it was much like beggar kind of situation because they were worried about usage of Nuclear reactor for some other use. So only what they opted to give us, we could get. . Now Narendra Modi was able to convince France and now France will make Nuclear reactors with the latest technology in India. On MAKE IN INDIA efforts.. with collaboration with an Indian company as a partner. . .
During 26th Jan. visit of Barack Obama , NaMo convinced USA to drop rule of Nuclear fuel tracking and sorted out Liabilities rules which now open the gates for next
Nuclear power plant projects. . . . Isn’t this good enough to improve the lot of India?
Let’s be sensible to analysis & make a judgment. Specially, for those who questioned about Modi’s foreign trip..
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